When we talk about chances—whether it’s predicting the weather, guessing an outcome, or taking a risk—we often turn to idioms to express uncertainty, possibility, or confidence.
Idioms of probability are colorful phrases that help us describe how likely (or unlikely) something is to happen.
Idioms of Probability
1. A long shot
Meaning: Something that has a very small chance of success.
Usage:
Winning the lottery is a long shot, but someone has to win.
It’s a long shot, but I’ll apply for that Ivy League school anyway.
2. Slim to none
Meaning: Very little or almost no chance.
Usage:
The chances of snow in July are slim to none.
He has slim to none odds of making the team without practicing.
3. A toss-up
Meaning: A situation where either outcome is equally likely.
Usage:
It’s a toss-up between pizza and burgers for dinner.
The election is a toss-up at this point.
4. Fifty-fifty
Meaning: Equal chance of either outcome.
Usage:
There’s a fifty-fifty chance of rain tomorrow.
It’s a fifty-fifty shot whether the package arrives on time.
5. Against all odds
Meaning: Despite being very unlikely to succeed.
Usage:
Against all odds, she graduated at the top of her class.
He survived the accident against all odds.
6. Odds are
Meaning: It’s likely that something will happen.
Usage:
Odds are she’ll be late again.
If you keep driving that fast, the odds are you’ll get a ticket.
7. Chances are
Meaning: There is a good possibility.
Usage:
Chances are he forgot to set his alarm.
Chances are you’ll love this movie.
8. A sure thing
Meaning: Something that is certain or very likely to happen.
Usage:
With his experience, the promotion is a sure thing.
The team’s win felt like a sure thing before the game even started.
9. Roll the dice
Meaning: Take a risk with an uncertain outcome.
Usage:
He decided to roll the dice and move to L.A.
You’re rolling the dice by investing all your savings.
10. In the cards
Meaning: Likely or destined to happen.
Usage:
I don’t think marriage is in the cards for them.
A vacation might be in the cards this summer.
11. The chances are remote
Meaning: The likelihood is very low.
Usage:
The chances are remote that the company will rehire him.
The chances are remote of finding your lost ring in the ocean.
12. The writing is on the wall
Meaning: A bad outcome is very likely.
Usage:
When sales dropped, the writing was on the wall for the store.
He ignored the writing on the wall and kept spending recklessly.
13. It’s a gamble
Meaning: A risky choice with uncertain results.
Usage:
Starting your own business is always a gamble.
Moving abroad without a job lined up is a gamble.
14. Shot in the dark
Meaning: A guess made with very little information.
Usage:
I didn’t study, so my answers were a shot in the dark.
That investment was just a shot in the dark, and it paid off.
15. Up in the air
Meaning: Uncertain or undecided.
Usage:
Our weekend plans are still up in the air.
The promotion is up in the air until next month.
16. Not a chance
Meaning: Absolutely no possibility.
Usage:
Not a chance I’m going out in this weather!
You think I’ll lend you my car? Not a chance.
17. Hit or miss
Meaning: Unpredictable; could go well or badly.
Usage:
His cooking is really hit or miss.
Online shopping can be hit or miss sometimes.
18. Better than nothing
Meaning: Not ideal, but still preferable to having nothing.
Usage:
This part-time job is better than nothing.
A small raise is better than nothing, I guess.
19. Play the odds
Meaning: Make a decision based on probability.
Usage:
We’ll play the odds and drive—traffic should be light.
She always plays the odds in poker and rarely loses.
